Forecast for the Week

The action during Sunday's healthcare vote will almost certainly impact the markets in the coming week, and there is also a full slate of economic reports to watch for. First up, there will be a double-dose of housing news with Tuesday's Existing Home Sales Report and Wednesday's New Home Sales Report.


Also, on Wednesday we'll get a read on the health of the economy with the Durable Goods Report, which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big ticket items that last for an extended period of time. Friday will bring another read on the economy with the Gross Domestic Product Report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity.

Not to be missed will be Thursday's weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report. While last week's initial claims were essentially inline with expectations, the ugly component of the report was the 5,888,048 people collecting EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits. This is a whopping 360,000 person increase from the prior week. Unfortunately, the labor market continues to be very weak.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, despite midweek volatility, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week very near where they began. With all the action in store, I'll be watching closely to see in what direction the markets and rates move this week. As always, please feel free to call or email to get more information on what the current rate climate means to you.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5%% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 19, 2010)

Forecast for the Week

With the healthcare debate heating up in Washington and the Fed's Mortgage Backed Securities Purchase program winding down, there are still plenty of events that could impact the markets and home loan rates.

On the economic report front, Thursday brings another Initial Jobless Claims Report. Last week's Initial Jobless Claims met expectations, but the big news was that the report showed 5.7M people claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits, which was an increase of over 207,000 from the prior week.

On tap for Friday is the Retail Sales Report, and as the most-timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns, it is important to see how the numbers come in. In fact, last week's Personal Consumption Expenditure report revealed that during January, consumers made less, saved less and spent more - but it remains to be seen if the increase in spending will show up in the Retail Sales Data.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds made some improvements during the week, but the gains were capped by a rally in Stocks and positive economic data. I'll be watching closely as always during the coming week - and please feel free to contact me anytime to learn more, or discuss your own financial and home loan situation.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5%% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 05, 2010)